The market is not waiting for the next trial results. There is ample news before then. Trial results were just released and were nothing short of brilliant. New trial results will come in due course, but next news is........ wait for it ......... news of new trials!
But this time, it is the context that counts: FDA - CTAP - COVID - then the market proper will catch on.
There are three sets of C19 trials in waiting to be mentioned, but one has already begun: the other compounds Biotron are testing for C19 other than BIT225. These results can come anytime, but I suspect not immediately.
The news of the other two new trais though are the exciting ones: an FDA sponsored CTAP trial in the US; and a C19 trial outsode of the US, probably in Australia. These are two trials being pushed for fast track based on the recent new data. My guess is that the 'Australian' one will be instigated first because the recent data does not have to be scrutinized by the FDA, unlike how any CTAP trial will be. Any trial here will be set up in NSW and/or Vic and may attract government sponsorship.
Then should follow the CTAP fast tracked trial news event, hopefully in Decemeber, but if not, certainly in January. This is based on the recent trial results that are unambiguous, along with a credible safety profile of the drug candidate from nine previous HIV trials; and of course, the FDA's new focus on therapeudics, not to mention the urgency. Both MM and Murphy unambigously suggested the same.
In regard to these two oustanding new fast tracks that we are waiting to hear on, it is the context that will influence the market most. These won't be traded simply as just another hot BIT event, but invested in for their true worth and will attract serious investment.
News about a major parnership will move the market too, as mad punters grasp dollars before they do good science. It is not too uncommon that partnerships are made at phase 2, and when you add a potential drug candiadate that can be repurposed for COVID, with outstanding early results, but still has just as much relevance for its first designed unmet need, then you have double the force of interest. I suggest that the best thing that has happened to BIT225 for HIV recently, besides their explainatory results last year, is the repurposing of it for C19. Success of it for C19 or not, 225 for HIV will now come into scrutiny by pharma. They ceratinly won't be ignoring its initial purpose in their DD for C19.
No, trial results won't come next, but rather, news of new trials; everyones favourite suject
.
Last word. Those mice that many BIT punters have made the focus of their jokes this last year, unaware until a few days ago of their weight gain in spite of COVID, and their significant reduction in cytokines and chemokines compared to control mice, are now what are going to bring us into the market limelight. Add a perfect
in vitro kill rate on Delta, and we get a ticket into the big league.
Grande Finale will be sometime mid next year, but the matches leading up to it will provide plenty of entertainment.
(20min delay)