Thankyou Mason, fellow "big man", presumably, especially with...

Thankyou Mason, fellow "big man", presumably, especially with your profession, and thankyou for your posts. I understand them at a macro if not micro level and the analogies you've been using have helped alot, and you are generous with your time because I write for a living and can't churn out that much analysis in one sitting.

Your observations on peers are no doubt correct and I and I'm sure half this forum 110% agree with you that RAC's prospects are surreal. eye watering. I look at my 40K odd shares and multiply it by upper end valuations and find it hard to concentrate at work.

However there is a sort of received wisdom share market investors sometimes say that the share market is eventually rational and while it might trade either side of true value for while, through "irrational exuberance" or excessive pessimism, it eventually solves for what a company is truly worth. Which I think is total bullsh*t because while we sit here doing our best risk adjusted calculus predicting the future is no different to predicting the weather only harder. Introduce enough variables interacting and chaos emerges, and then multiply that by human herd mentality and who knows what the share price will be in a month.

Which might explain why, though I agree our present position warrants $2bn, probably more - our current reality values us at 14% of that figure. It has done for quite a while. We've never come even close to $2bn. We likely will but so far we haven't.

We can be extremely confident this drug is going to be a radical step change in cancer treatment. We can be radically confident that several pharmaceutical companies will be greedily eyeing it and would be willing to cut throats and burn villages to win against their competitors.

We can't be sure of how the herd will respond to good results. We can't know how pharma companies, armed with deal teams that specialise in driving prices into the ground will act or interact with each other when/if the time comes,

The other company is in a hot sector and is slightly further along in the development pipeline (There's an argument RAC is more de-risked because of the 110 approval though I admit - but then the herd mentality comes in - people see 'Phase 1A/1B' and only have so much time, so they move to the next company that says it's starting Phase 2/3 instead).

This is a huge amount of waffle to say - its probably good to be spread out a bit even if RAC has to play down its own prospects to not seem insane. Because none of us really know what's going to happen. We can be confident, even massively confident but stranger things have happened and sure things have crashed and burned. Not a great note to end on - we're all going to be buying yachts I hope... just... its ok to diversify.