Here is a high level categorisation and probability distribution...

Here is a high level categorisation and probability distribution of market participants:

Level 1(P99): These are Accountants whose skills and imagination are limited to Financial Statements - Best they can do is 2 or 3 years of historical numbers and with any luck they would know how to read a cash flow statement.

Level 2(P75): Next level we have newbie financial analysts - They can read the financial statements and in addition to that imagine 1 or two years ahead - come up with some sort of proforma numbers and multiple that with a multiple

Level 3(P50): Then we have commercial guys who do long term financial modelling , M&A, debt/equity deals - They can understand the long term financial projections and somewhat understand where the business is headed in long term based on "existing" and "derisked" growth. They can do some sort of DCF analysis and sum of parts valuation etc

Level 4(P25): Then we have the brave bulls who can form a view on growth that is not yet de-risked, can foresee structural changes to macros and project all that value

Level 5(P5): Then we have "deal makers" people who are good at story telling beyond the existing projects and market. They realise the difference between "Value creation" and "Discounted cash flows". A business can have different value for different investors. e.g A business with carry forward tax loss is very valuable to a business with a high effective tax rate. A business with exposure to a certain commodity or geography can have a value beyond the discounted cash flows to a buyer eg if they can improve the EBITDA multiple, diversification, ESG risk profile, attract a pool of cheap capital etc

Level 6(P1): Lastly, we have businessman who understands all of these things and have access to resources (capital and people) to execute and bring that value to books. Chris Ellison is a good example of that!

In other words its more than likely that an average hot copper punter will not have any clue how value is created!