BKT already has a credible offtake partner in POSCO - Fantastic. Who are BKT going to sell the other 70% of production to? POSCO only want the fines.
I gather you are all familiar with this chart. Syrah didn't open a 350kt mine in 2019 into a 750kt market. SYR produces 85% fines. The fines market was only 200kt. Now it is 800kt.
You need to understand flake graphite sizes and where the growth is. Batteries require fines. The size of fines are -100 mesh which only accounts for 30% of BKT mine production.
Have a look at the growth of non fines from BKT's chart above (70% of BKT's production)
2023 is a forecast
| Year | KT | Non-fines gth | Fines Gth |
|---|
| 1 | 2019 | 557.96 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
| 2 | 2020 | 545.36 | -12.6 | 256.64 |
|---|
| 3 | 2021 | 564.3 | 18.94 | 237.7 |
|---|
| 4 | 2022 | 567.45 | 3.15 | 234.55 |
|---|
| 5 | 2023 | 582.75 | 15.3 | 219.25 |
|---|
>80% of new mines coming on-line in the next 5-7 years predominantly produce non fine flake. The market will be flooded with larger size flake which nobody will want. On the flip side, the Lithium Ion battery market requires every fine flake they can produce and then some.
However, all is not lost. If Hydrogen Fuel Cells using block graphite technology takes-off which requires larger size flake, BKT will make a motza. It is estimated they'll need 5-8x more larger size flake for Hydrogen Fuel Cells than they need fines for Lithium Ion batteries.
I believe Hydrogen Fuel Cells using block graphite technology will take off. I just don't know when.
