Difference between PAN & POS is chalk & cheese
PAN has a 1.5MTpa mill stranded in Pilbara not 2.2MTpa next to Kalgoorlie in good condition with prior production history.
PAN has low grades 1.23% more like 1.0% and nowhere near the JORC resources of POS
PAN has 1 mine 1 decline, POS has 7 mines all with built mine declines to ore bodies (W EA MH BS GS SS Gosling)
POS is close to large workforce & sealed freeway network, PAN is stranded in Pilbara among the deserted canyons.
PAN had large capex & refurbishments needed and took $45M from Trafigura for that purpose while POS has low capex, built mills and mine declines and spent large sums on refurbishments for 8 years already.
Yet PAN has productive busy Victor as CEO who has hit 6 runs and pulled our pants while POS has rockstar asleep at the wheel PH.
If the 2014 DFS was $4.05 from W to BS and SS to BS was $5.31 in 2018 then reduce this by 30% for the AUD$ drop and remove 95% transport costs W to BS & $14M capex spend since 2014 already there plus all those ladderways, aircon vents, lighting, mine manager works, LJ camp addition, jumbo drill driver down there for 6 months etc etc then add 20% higher wages.
Yep $4.00 AISC is my estimate.
At NP of $8.00 PH stated many times it was HIGH MARGIN PRODUCTION, so on the PAN DFS scale thats a 50% margin so meaning AISC is around $4.00.
Secondary assessment process using the CEOs own words.
But sure they will put on some fat to cover their higher wages/bonuses for making $500Mpa revenue and $300Mpa EBITDA. No production no revenue no bonuses.
The offtakers must be having coronaries with PH.
Human nature is greedy envious glutony, very powerful incentives.
I have made my own assessments and none of you can even dare to even try.
One has to use the prior DFS BFS as a guide imho.
"HIGH MARGIN PRODUCTION" the CEOs words says it all.
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