Resource definition & PFS - 10-15 % with Off take & Pilot Plant...

Resource definition & PFS - 10-15 %
with Off take & Pilot Plant - 20-25 %
with DFS & Funding - 30-45 %
Construction commences - 50-60%

not entirely sure but was something on these lines.
Also dependent on time to production, closer to it obv higher the mcap as % of NPV (prob given provides more confidence in pricing & fewer hurdles), longer the time to production lower the mcap % of NPV (prob to do with ambiguity over potential issues). SW said yesterday we’re looking at mid 2025 for main NCM production (which is when we will prob be closer to 100% NPV if I recollect?). So while the delay (& drop in sp) has been disappointing & most of us wish we sold in that 70-80 range to buy back, it’s hindsight now. I suppose while it’s been an opportunity cost, the risk reward is still good (if not better than it was if buying in 60s/70s) as downside risk is 34 (-20%) & upside to just 84 is 100%.

we still have a long way to go before bsx’s exploration rise ends. Each of those above de risking events will add 5-10% to our mcap & CV would/could be a nice add on. It should get to that 800m-1b mcap figure (H1 next yr between FID & construction start) ie around $1.6-$2 or so.
So while the delay & drop in sp has been disappointing, it’s still in exploration phase for another 12-15 months for more upthrusts till it gets furter de risked.

once that happens is when am expecting speculators to leave for a sustained dull period during construction till
it gets close to production when interest is back up again & ppl start doing ebita potentials etc.

I’ve erred in by not selling the highs in Jan, then erred in holding it through this 50% retrace. Now if I sell this 34-42 area that’ll be the biggest error of it all. So will be patient to ride it out till H1 next yr & hopefully sell some some
parcel when euphoria returns post these events.

will still hold some long term as still believe in the “story” & do think while there is inherent risk, of they get it right, will be looking at dividends like fex had when the time comes for those of us that got in the 40s it’l be sweet (hopefully).