Mate, for your sake I hope you're right but I'd be very...

Mate, for your sake I hope you're right but I'd be very surprised. They can't "recommission" something that is owned and being used by their competitor at Glencore. Q Govt wouldn't have a clue on the profitability. I did some estimating work many years ago on the decommissioning costs involved in rehab of gas plants in the Surat basin - Q Govt figures were out by a factor of 10! There have been plenty of instances where Q Govt have agreed to transfer of mining leases to an entity that later proves to be unprofitable.

How far do they have to haul the coal for the next 12 months? I reckon probably 120km. At a rough estimate of 15c/t/km that's $18/t depending on the state of the roads and then they will have to pay for maintenance of off-highway roads, loading, unloading and profit for whoever's TLO they are using, let alone losses of coal in the process. Can't see much change from $25/t maybe more. They might get a slight improvement on rail haulage costs but I doubt it. How does that affect their sales margin? Have they even got a TLO sorted out? DYOR.