Yes, I think it would be fair to expect an arbitrage situation between existing shares and the SPP, with an offset amounting to the anticipated price of the options when they start to trade.
On that basis I was expecting the SP to return to circa 3.7c over the last couple of days, as the arbitrage came to an end. However, the SP only finished at 3.4c today, for a rise of just 0.3c. Rather disappointing, and on that basis we can expect the price of the options to kick off at about 0.3c.
However, this could still change depending on what happens to the SP after Easter. Given the holiday, many people will have their minds on other things today, so perhaps we will see a delayed reaction. If, for example, the SP rises another 0.2c on Tuesday, then I would expect 0.5c for the options.
Let's see if the market makes any sense when the options commence trading on 12 April.
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