So folks, lets look at this objectively. In doing so, I am going to concede that perhaps there was a disconnect between market expectation based on what the market understood to be the plan, compared to where we are today.
- We have heavy crude as expected in these upper sheets and the expectation is more of the same in unit 2 and 1B
- 1A was a bonus
- We now have a whole lot more heavy crude than we had originally estimated
- Confirmation is that the oil is moveable and moveable cheaply - we are onshore, something that the market is not appreciating compared to other explorers / producers
- Cuba is equipped to process the heavy crude and there is a large market for the stuff
- Unit 2 and 1B will both add to net pay
- AP is setting a subtle expectation that post appraisal we may move to production within a short timeframe (yet to be determined) this means money in the bank to fund additional production wells and further exploration and development of the field
- We still have Almeda and Marti to go. These are where we are expecting lighter oil, but to be honest even if it is heavy oil and there is lots of it, it is also a good result and will amplify the case for immediate production
Based on the markets reaction I suspect even if we found light oil in unit 3, it would have been pumped and dumped within a few days, since that just seems to be the way the market is working on most stocks these days. Then once production commenced, we would see a relative appreciation in share price as the $$$ start flowing in.
So what next.
1. Unit 2 and 1B have the potential to provide additional net pay. Given that the production scenarios are cheap, processing available and demand from local market a given, there is a high possibility of $$$ flowing soon.
2. Almeda and Marti, each in there own right have the chance of being company makers but at the very least substantially adding to heavy crude production $$$ to support additional exploration and production.
In conclusion, it seems everywhere we drill we find oil, we are sitting on an ocean of the stuff, is the potential only worth the current SP?
DYOR. GLTAH.
(20min delay)