Ann: Block 9 Alameda 2 Appraisal Update, page-702

I did my homework.

This 11api oil similar to that of Varadero is priced according to the "Gulf Coast Fuel Oil Number 6 reference prices" as Sherritt said in their 2015 Annual report.

They said they take a discount, which I worked out to be -42% (because of the geographical location, upgrading, and expenses etc [this was derived from their $/bo]).

This means if we have a look at the current future contracts for Fuel oil Number 6, it is around $63-$78. -42% = $29.61/bo. Soo.. better than nothing, and a lot better than I thought prior to calculating it.

This is dependent on whether or not the oil can actually be extracted. To follow up on Andrew Purcell's claims yesterday of "they have been doing this for a long time" in regards to horizontal/direction drilling... well I checked, and Sherritt said this type of horizontal/directional drilling in Cuba has been going on since Quarter 4 of 2004, by themselves.

Soo.. assuming horizontal drilling works, we are looking at a down grade from $50/bo to ~$29.61/bo.

Using the above numbers, and assuming horizontal drilling as has been done since 2004 works, I can re-calculate VOGC's valuations and make a new party thread, I will either publish this new party thread before or after the appraisal of Amistad is finished (ideally it would be after the certifier includes the new logs, however that would take 1-3months, so I think I will guess the outcome of the logs based on the previous logs and previous upgrades).

A rough draft is close to something like this:


source: adapted from VOGC 06/08/2023, 69188544, with annotations/amendments to the averaged realised prices according to the Gulf Coast Fuel Oil Number 6 reference prices for heavy crude, and the discount Sherritt previously took because of the geographical location and logistical problems that go along with it as referenced by Sherritt Annual report (2015).