Ann: Block 9 Alameda 2 Increase in Net Pay, page-397

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TheGodFather

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06/08/23

21:17

Post #: 69188902
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Originally posted by VOGC: ↑

Hi All,

For those interested, just Posting my review of the ASX 4/8/23 together with some back-up Slides and a re-working of my estimated volumes and very rough share price estimates.

With respect to the share price estimates, I've derived theses over many years of investing and just see them as a very rough guide to indicate to me if value is being factored in by the Market that is outside of what I would expect for a discovery's current level of understanding. Institutions etc. will obviously be focusing on many other aspects with respect to MAY's progression:
Production flow rates
Development costs & timing
Sovereign risks - keeping the acreage, keeping the oil, can you get it out of the county, can you get paid etc.

Slides:
1. Review of ASX 4/8/23
Key Points
IMO, from the literature on the Northern Oil Belt Fields the 538m net pay number would be more justified.
Permeability present
Vuggy porosity present
Comments on same issue in Item 1

2. Example from literature commenting on production being significantly from fractures and other forms of secondary porosity.

3. Information from which Vertical Richness (MMBO/m) has been derived from.

4. Estimates of current recoverable resources, net to MAY, from Vertical Richness calculation.

5 to 8. Very rough share price estimates (Note - qualifying comments above).

GLTAH
Cheers
VOGC

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Thanks for your input VOGC, your posts are always jam packed. Crazy to think that these numbers are just for unit 1A/B and 2 at 5% recovery (50c is a given). Wouldn’t even want to think about the fair value estimates once we confirm the recoverability…
MAY Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
51 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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