Ann: Block 9 - Early Production and Spud of Alameda-3, page-289

I can't remember if I have posted these numbers before, if I have, then apologies for a repeat.
Back of an envelope valuation based on proven reserves for BPT and STO come at roughly $14m in MC per 1mil barrels in reserves. Karoon is an aberration to this as they are valued at almost double that ratio.
So, 400m barrels of black gold (using Santos and Beach MC value) would come to $5.6 billion MC (take it easy on that Lambo order, not yet - maybe late next year). Now, the problem is production. We will end up with large proven reserves in time (I'm pretty confident of this) but we need to produce at least 20k bbls per day (or 60k gross) to match Karoon in production (they "only" have 55m bbls reserves) or over 50k bbls per day (150k gross) to match Beach and their $3.5b MC. We're talking few years (at least 2-3?) to develop the field to reach anywhere near such production. With the horizontal wells, being mentioned by AP, producing 3-4k bbls per day, we'd need 20 wells (doable + obviously a pipeline required) to match Karoon's production. This is only considering 1B production.
If we hit a jackpot with either/both Alameda and Marti, then obviously we are looking at a decent production (I'm assuming lighter oil with a high pressure, good flows to surface) and surely $2-3b MC in a couple of years. We'd be looking at being 3rd-4th biggest oil company (reserves based) on the ASX.
Enjoy your weekend. Good luck to MAY (we'll all win then...)