I don't hate this announcement. Timing of A3 not ideal but it is what it is. In terms of using 1B as a logistical check it makes sense to see how long they can persist with trucking at X flow rates.
250 barrel tanker on say 1000 per day is probably as simple as a 2 truck operation (with a 3rd as redundancy) doing 2 runs per day. Say 6 hours to fill 2 hours each way in terms of commute + 1 hour to dump into storage. Opex for that kind of thing feels pretty negligible. So at current prices we could be looking at anything from 40-60 margin per barrel even if we cop a discount, maybe higher if no meaningful discount applied.
200 (net) bpd at $60 USD at 90% up time (not unreasonable) = ~4M USD p.a. Covers a decent chunk of day to day overhead costs for almost nil investment.
CUPET receiving more are even more incentivised to then fast track more wells / more trucks for higher flow rates. Obviously if you get a horizontal well in place then you are looking at 12M p.a. The (30%) capex burden for a horizontal well is easily covered by that 8M p.a. uplift.
I am sure there are more qualified people that me that could confirm or deny but you could probably conduct a poor man's flow test based off the data you observe in the simple production from the well under this scenario too that could assist in cost reduction / design improvement for future wells.
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