So further to my prior ramblings this is what I have managed to cobble together (albeit without really deep diving yet due to still having to work because MAY has not hit $2.)
Interestingly, the net pay for Amistad was (at some point) listed as 138m. I am not sure at what point in time (or why) this was wound back to 84m in subsequent announcements although if I has to guess it may be due to a change in porosity cut off perhaps.
So for the sake of argument let's call it 84 and say that 3m of that was 1A as per below.
So this still doesn't split out net pay lengths of Unit 2 or Unit 3 but the following table is still perhaps quite instructive...
So, and bear with the extrapolation here, if we assume that the 84m of net pay was roughly split 1/3,1/3,1/3 for Unit 1 (A&B) Unit 2 and Unit 3 (given the 2U figures were roughly 1/3 each of the total) we can reasonably extrapolate that the Unit 1 was ~ 84/3 or 28m of net pay. 3m of 1A is ~11% of the 28m net pay of Unit 1. So it seems reasonable to deduce that 1A contributed around 1M of the 9M barrels (MAY WI) with 1B contributing ~8M. So essentially the 8M of 1B, from ~25m of net pay the A1, drill now has morphed to a MAY WI of 14M Contingent and 27M Prospective (41M total) following the most recent drill. This includes a ~2.75x increase in the RF (5%-14%). So dividing by this to keep the RF constant gives ~15M barrels (at a 5% RF) for 1B. So we can say that the increase to 1B based on the increased net pay (of that section) was basically to double it (i.e from 8 to 15M if the RF as left at 5%). If we strip 1A out of the original 84 (3m) and then again out of the current 243 (125m) we can see that 1B, 2 & 3 increased their net pay from 81m to 118m. Given we have controlled for the RF in our calcs the uplift just from the net pay increase of 37m led to a doubling of the resource (for 1B) . Based on this I think it isn't unfair to assume a doubling of the resource sizes for Unit 2 and Unit 3 from a total of 18M to 36M barrels (albeit probably mostly P, not C).
Then, even if we assume no increase in the RF for 1A we have a 41x uplift in the net pay size 3m -125m we are ideally talking about a total of 41m barrels (WI to MAY - all we care about) for 1A at a 5% (i.e unchanged RF) just based on the increased size of the net pay.
So I think we can conceivably get to a point where we have 41 (1A) + 41 (1B) + 36 (U2 & U3) = 118m barrels (2C & 2P) combined just for Amistad as the final number. That is with keeping a 5% RF for 1A, 2 and 3.
Keep in mind this is still on (assumed) total net pay of 243m instead of 538m. So essentially at current market cap $200M AUD we are valuing the oil in ground at $1.10 USD per barrel, just for Amistad...
Seriously, is it any wonder a bunch of us are completely bewildered at the price of this thing?
(20min delay)
