Based on McDaniels recoverable and oil in place figures you can...

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justinmetals

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11/04/24

17:03

Post #: 73300688
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Originally posted by Deus_EX_102 ↑

Hi Flambeau, one of the posters you mentioned argued for a while that Unit 1B is uneconomic as there is no market for it, due to it being heavy sour crude. I would counter there is indeed a market for Unit 1B oil, as similar oils in the regions have recently found buyers.

a snapshot of similar oils in the region to Unit 1B;
Source; ASX IP 20-Dec-23

circled in red is Unit 1B's similarity to Venezuela's Merey crude oil. Merey was discovered in 1937 in Venezuela. It has slightly lower API to unit 1B, with 609 mmboe Oil-originally-in-place and about 75 million barrels recoverable, a recovery factor of 12.3%. It has so far recovered about 41 million barrels, a current RF of 8.7%. Source; https://eprinc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/The-Future-of-Venezuela’s-Oil-Industry.pdf (pg14). Indeed, in the above mentioned document which lists all of Venezuela's oil fields, the recovery factors are both realistic and actually higher than what McDaniel's are currently ascribing to our fields. VOGC argues that McDaniels are constraining the Contingent Resources of Unit 1B to a smallish area. I wonder whether they are conservative still on their RF.

The Merey crude listed above has recently found a buyer in China at one of China's largest and newest heavy oil refineries. It is being sold at Brent minus $10, a similar figure given by Chris Thomson in the most recent webinar of approximately 'WTI minus 5%'. Brent is currently trading at US$90 a barrel so a nice time to start producing. Source; https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-...s-Venezuelan-Crude-for-New-Mega-Refinery.html.

Chris Mckeown in the most recent article for PESA (https://www.melbana.com/site/cpfile...5fae1fae4cc2/PESA_NEWS_ARTICLE_MARCH_2024.PDF) says Unit 1B is quite similar also to the Vincent oil field offshore Western Australia. Vincent was ofcoarse operated by top tier operator Woodside with Mitsui from 2008, from a discovered oil column of 12 - 19 meters and 17API oil. The oil was sold by Mitsui's trading partner in Singapore and had recoverable reserves of 73 million barrels. Source; https://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/vincent-field/?cf-view&cf-closed

Indeed, if these figures above are to go by, Unit 1B is indeed a world class oil field in its own right with comparable, if not bigger, reserves than some operated by the largest oil companies in the world.

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Based on McDaniels recoverable and oil in place figures you can deduct their using about a 15% recovery, if I’m not very much mistaken

Last edited by justinmetals: 11/04/24

MAY Price at posting: 6.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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