@VOGC great summary. Most folks should be able to understand what this means...with a little help.
And for those wanting to get the ruler out, Unit 1B is around 5 x bigger than the original estimate in 2022. It was 30 MM BBL recoverable, in the prospective category. It is now 150 MM BBL recoverable in the contingent and prospective category combined. But it is easy for a layperson to get lost in some of the detail. And judging by some of the posts, the penny has not dropped for many re: resource size.
There are some posters that seem to be deliberately obtuse, or clueless, or have an intention to deceive or all three - and happy to spew their garbage on these threads, with the real effect of "spooking" non technical holders. I still can not believe the garbage about oil quality. It is enough to know there are plenty of refineries that will happily take 20API sour crude.
For the benefit of folk easily swayed by the truck loads of garbage dumped onto these threads ...here is a "distilled" version of VOGCs post. VOGC has correctly detailed where he has obtained his facts, and how he has used them to arrive at his interpretation - and if you're not a technical person, you can easily get lost in it.
Using VOGCs
interpretation of the facts we know (BBL figures are for a 100% share):
- McD have assigned Contingent resources in Unit 1B of 46 (call it 50 for simplicity) MM BO recoverable. It is likely they applied this to an area of 1.45 sq km around Alameda 1, 2 and 3.
- McD have said that another approx 100 MM BBL recoverable are Prospective
- MAY has interpreted the closure of Unit 1B to be 12.6 sq km - which extrapolates to 400MM BO recoverable. See below table.
- This assumes a net pay of 350 m true vert depth.
- IMO MAY has been conservative in its interpreted closure of Unit 1B. Looking at their map and 6 future well pads, you could easily multiply the 12.6 by 1.6, giving around 20 km2 closure - for Unit 1B
So if you have got this far, you will see all i have done is restated VOGCs good work. In lay terms.
What i really want to post about is detailed below. And it concerns current market value/perceptions. One of the key dynamics that appears to be playing out and single handedly affecting the fate of this company is not how much oil we have - blind freddy can tell you we have shitloads already "discovered" in the Alameda (Amistad, Alameda and Marti reservoirs) - and similar potential in another 19 prospects/leads, elsewhere in the acreage.
The important question now, is how far is MAY willing to go, to develop what they have found? This is the key question.
MAY has said in the past, they are explorers and not developers and they would happily sell out to a developer ... for the right price. This imo has sent the wrong message out to their client (CUPET), JV partner and would be buyers, as they see a weakness. The weakness is in MAYs
willingness (and therefore ability) to take it to the next step and become a successful producer. This is a big step and requires a transformational change in the management and nature of the company's operations. May has previously signalled they do not have the appetite for this (I heard it with my own ears and I stood in disbelief thinking they have just declared they are wood ducks). As we have all seen, the market is saying well we're not going to give you a cent unless you show us you have the brains, determination and werewithall to take it to the next step. And until then, we will wait to sweat you out and pick you up for $250-$500M...if youre lucky. What May has found so far is worth well in excess of those numbers.
MAYs ability to realise its full valuation potential sits on the back of this question. Would be buyers are sitting back and not paying a single cent. Indeed some of them may be active in the market through their proxies, gimps and bots keeping a lid on the SP...in the hope they piss off enough retail SH to let go of the float and give it to them virtually for free. The other effect of keeping a lid on the SP is to limit the ability/desirability for MAY to seek equity funding.
Once MAY becomes a producer however, valuation will be a derivative of cashflow...Cashflow is something that is absolutely quantifiable and measurable. Once they have a cashflow, they will also have money to do things...like continue to drill and develop. And they wont need to sell out to anyone. This is a position of strength.
If you want to see an analogue...look at Sherritt. They've been at it for 20 years plus. They are a reliable partner for the Cuban Govt. and they're pocketing 200M per annum. imo MAY needs to attain these types of credentials...in order to get a license to operate and
work its way to realising the true value of the discovery.
The only way to do it is to forget about getting bought out etc. and get serious about transforming into a developer/producer. No more smoke and mirrors and pretty lines on maps.
- We've been hearing about a Amistad field development for over a year now.
- We've seen graphs and pretty pictures.
- We've had the oh were waiting for McD and the resource numbers.
- We've had the oh were lining up take off partners.
- We've had the oh we're discussing with JV partners and Cupet.
Well, it is time to show us the money. Chris. This one is for both of you.
- Show us a credible/detailed forward plan to cashflow.
- Show us a credible development plan be it organic or be it funded.
- Show us that you really intend on getting the additional drill rigs on to the project to develop Unit 1B...and 1A and 2/3.
- Show us that you are building an expat/local team to manage the construction work to see this into development...get real guys and get some real gear.
- Show us you're serious about developing this.
Maybe then we might all see some of the true value of what this company has achieved materialise.
Position and sentiment - unmentionable.
(20min delay)
