MAY 4.29% 7.3¢ melbana energy limited

My 1c is that the upgrade, being only for a portion Amistad...

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    My 1c is that the upgrade, being only for a portion Amistad rather than the whole section, has left a sour taste with investors. Most were looking for a ~6x uplift in total resource (with ideally more being in the C rather than P category). This 1B subsection release feels tokenistic and again shows how detached from actual real on the ground timeframes AP actually is. He implied semi smugly in the webinar that he expected the full results by the end of Jan. This is only one portion basically 2 full months later than his thought. Not a great look.

    As such I think that any big movement now will stem from the results of the current drill into Alameda and Marti. The Amistad resource upgrade (in terms of positive newsworthiness has effectively "died on the vine") due to the delays and piecemeal nature of its release. Sadly it is actually (in isolation) an actual good piece of news. This an entirely legitimate stand alone resource however the nature of the information release has meant that is lost in the white noise, and general impatience of investors.

    I think a true re-rate now hinges on the success of this current drill as, you'd assume, any FDPs for Amistad would likely be contingent on what Alameda and Marti reveal, i.e., if the news is what we hope then Amistad pales in comparison to the true prize and the company's efforts get (rightly concentrated on those two). If they perform at or better than expected (keeping in mind expectations are already elevated) then this re-rates quickly and strongly. If the news gets released piecemeal and/or under expectations then I think it eventually becomes stale (again) and we languish at these <10c levels. This is despite the fact that prima facie this still appears to be one of the more important discoveries in the world in the last 10 years. Sadly I think our pricing reflects a deep discount to the actual resource itself but probably fairly reflects the "skill" in which management have operated and communicated. That said high flow rates from Marti and Alameda will forgive a multitude of sins.

    Marti and Alameda perform and all options (corporate and operational) suddenly come flooding back to the table. Fingers crossed, team.
 
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