A devastating result...
1) after 14days of testing and shutting in, they had to pump it with PCP. They said 1894 barrels flowed naturally.... sooo 14days to produce 1894 barrels... absolute yikes. (source: ASX:MAY, 15/04/2025 8:25 am Block 9 Operations Update
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.may)
2) they took Alameda and Marti off their reservoir chart:
source: ASX:MAY, 15/04/2025 8:25 am Block 9 Operations Update
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.may3) A flow rate of 488 BOPD would need an extraordinary amount of wells to extract the P50 or P90.
4) The flow of 488 BOPD was only for 12hrs...
Dare I ask what will happen after 12hrs? Dare I ask....
5) So they have about ~15yrs before Cuba takes the permit, as they did Sherritt's. (
Post #:67866067).
6) If using Gulf Coast No. 6 Fuel Oil or something similar (this is what Sherritt used for their Cuban oil sales, it depends on quality of the oil). To be generous we could say 488bo/d x US$25/bbl (source:
Post #:73041612) x 0.675 (net average entitlement interest) x 0.3 (ASX:MAY's share of joint venture) = $2,470.5 $US/d. ($13,525,987.5 $US after 15yrs....)
Absolute chicken feed.
If there is ~136MMbbl gross (100% Sonangol + Melbana) the minimum amount of wells you would need at 488bopd is 51 wells... and that assumes all are in operation as of right now and will all last 15years at exactly 488bopd... (which is impossible, so you would probably need double or triple that many wells). They already told us they could only manage about 2-7 new wells per year... The longer it takes to establish the new wells, the more you would need to try to increase the flow rate before running out of time (most likely not achievable).
source: 25 Mar 2024, ASX:MAY, Block 9 - Maiden Contingent Resources
https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/announcements.may-----------------------------------------------
Long story short, I think this project would eventually pay for itself... but unfortunately, I don't think it would manage to make that much profit with 488 bopd.
The biggest elephant in the room is the piece of information we don't know.
The #1 question that needs to be asked at the next webinar is "What is the current average flow rate for Alameda-2.?" ["Full time production from the well has now commenced" (ASX:MAY, 15/04/2025)] Obviously they won't want to give this answer, and will probably say derp derp the PCP pump broke down, soo we had to temporarily stop, or something to that effect. I would bet on it.
I'm out and staying out. Good luck. Maybe I will come back if they try to risk a Alameda/Marti round 2.
(20min delay)