Umm, have you read any of my earlier posts, the Current Net Assets are being materially overstated by 7mill on just the oaktree loan. Based on that, how can you have any confidence in the balance sheet statements?
Second - your assuming that the assets are realizable - $50 million are in non-current co-investments, shares in investment trusts which you would struggle to sell at market value. $20million are in non-current trade receivables from Blue Sky funds - ie management fees that they have "booked" on the P&L but not received and not recoverable for over 12 months. $5 million is in Inventory - which based on accounting terminology are the spend so far on the construction of the student accommodation - also unrealizable. $20 million is on current trade receivables from BLA managed funds, now I'm not a CFO, but if you are struggling with Cash (hence the need for the Oaktree loan) - the first thing to do is collect it from people who owe you money, now if those entities are under your control and you don't collect it... hmmm... The original number was $30mil but they wrote off 10mill of it at 31 Dec 18... I wonder what the real ability to recover those funds are? All of these numbers are in the half year report - page 22 read it for yourself.
Third, the balance of the assets are the valuation placed on the operating units, which outside of the water rights fund management business is arguably unprofitable - given that BLA isn't profitable. $10million is on plant and equipment - almost 2million of which is the carrying value of their fitout - good luck selling that.
Fourth and finally, 40% of that 97mil is cash, which they will burn through before anybody can see it.
Fifth and finally - The idea that you can realize 90mil in a finite time frame and get the fair value for the assets once word got out that they are in trouble is a joke.
So in summary:
call it $100million in net balance sheet assets, with the oaktree loan recorded at half its actual repayment value (recorded as $45 mil, repayment required of $90). The actual realizable assets are well below the $90 million that would be required to repay the loan and keep the company functional (if it even is now).
In my view, if Oaktree calls the loan, this will enter a trading half and is game over.
