Umm what I said was that I was concerned that the cash burn could be as high as 50mil given that they exited a number of investments, should have received a raft of cash and none of that is in the bank account anymore.
AS per their own commentary:
30 June 2018 - $40mill in the bank Raised from oaktree - 50mil Exited investments - ? Less operating expenses losses - 8 31 Dec 2019 - $54mil in the bank (un audited)
That leaves at about 30mil gone from the bank account - which has either been loaned to failing investments and written off or used to see new investments. Now if they realized 10 mil from those exits, then they burnt 40mil, if they realized 20mil from those exits, they burnt 50mil. My issue is that we don't actually know how much they realized from those investments - but at the end of the day the cash is not there.
From their own commentary - FEAUM:
30 June 2018 - 3.4 Billion 30 September 2018 - 3.5 Billion (but noting that this will reduce by 300mil due to an exit of retirement investment) ?? October 2018 - 3.2 Billion 31 December 2018 - 3.0 Billion
So, either the cash has gone to seed new investments (which for some reason are not being reflected on the FEAUM as its dropping) or its providing loans to investments that are failing.
So in summary in 6 months: - There is $36million less in the bank account - They have reduced FEAUM by 12%
Plus the idea that their assets are saleable is actually questionable. If they are writing of 7mil in loans to investments (because they don't see the money coming back) in the last 6 months plus 12 million last half - so 19million for 2018 - that suggests to me that the real state of the FEAUM of the profitable / functional investments is materially different to the 3 Billion stated.
In addition to the costs stated in the last 6months don't forget that they have an additional 2.5million a year in interest payable.
After you pay back Oaktree the 97million they are entitled to, there will not be much left of this shell - just a bunch of investments that were part of the co-investments.
My final though is that until we know the status of the cash and where its going, this is a punt not an investment.
BLA Price at posting:
75.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
