Took the time to listen to the teleconference. Basically Shand says verbatim when asked to clarify the quantum affecting profits;
Shand: "what we had assumed in our forecast was that we would raise a number of deals... our revenue from deal fees this half would be $14m... we've assumed given the change in sentiment... it is most prudent to assume that the substantial majority of that does not occur"
By proxy of the new guidance he has basically COMPLETELY discounted their revenue generating ability and assigns value for deal making for half a year as ZERO. WTF.
Chucks an extra bone in to blame the cost of the review on profits also.
Their deal making ability i.e. exits (probably the most overused word in the entire call) is their core business.
AUM which is possibly the most critical variable in a fee management structure will look elsewhere and fast... I'd predict it's going to fall dramatically short of their expected $5.5bn - $6bn. In fact they will be doing well to hold on at $4bn.
I am wondering what the sum of parts valuation is here... could this be worth a look in the 2s or 3s?
BLA Price at posting:
$4.08 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
