Hey @JollyJohn, not sure I can truly say I am making anything...

Hey @JollyJohn, not sure I can truly say I am making anything easier to understand, but appreciate the hat tip all the same.
Annddd.... of course, your point about the 400k p.a target for FY2024 got me pondering.... (I have posted about it before, though... I think that was back when they first mentioned the 400k p.a goal). I must admit, the first step to piecing together the puzzles is to create a timeline.

WB actually came to the helm at WGX on the 31st July 2021 (but unofficially was running the company as much as 3-6 months before that, as Cookie had been on leave, and had announced even earlier that he was going to step down). Which... means WB has been at the helm for over two years which... also shows just how long it takes to steer a big company away from an iceberg! BUT- just to say, WB clearly did not have totally free reign until the CEO left in May 2022.

Then... later that year (2021) WGX under WB, makes the bid for GCY in Sept 2021. So.... it's WB at the helm, BUT not MD, (I think a reaction to the GCY/FFR deal occurring). In any case.... the deal falls flat due to SL (MD of GCY) having outwitted the GCY MD and board.
Fast forward to March 2022 and... WB undertakes a huge capital raising, $100m to be used for.... (cheers for that snippet), though they still had $89m in cash when it occurred.



On the face of it... all looks logical, except maybe the capital raising size...., but.... (you will need to click on the image, sorry), much of the plans have now fallen by the wayside (not saying they were not the right decisions, but... very challenging to achieve the 400k p.a target in FY24, when... many of the ways that were going to support doing so, are not going ahead.



Lets take another more detailed look at where the extra ounces had been planned to come from:
Bryah plant upgrade- 5-10k extra
Bluebird - 25k extra
Fender - 30k extra
Tuckabianna trend - 50k extra
Day Dawn - 50-60k extra
Total: 160-170k extra which would see WGX get close to 400k, though it must be remembered, that WGX would be replacing low grade ore, with higher grade, so... no extra throughput, just grade increases.
(( Interestingly, it does not include Big Bell Deeps.... which could boost production substantially ))



Now of course, of the above planned developments, to date, only Bluebird U/G has come online (and is still increasing). Lets be generous and add 40k from Bluebird U/G. Perhaps 30k from Day Dawn (Great Fingall), as they won't have a full year of production. An increase of perhaps 70k. Which leaves perhaps 80-90k to be added. WGX could do it.... with Fender & the Tuckabianna trend, but... WB has made it clear, the U/G mines have to have size to make the cut, and so far.... none of the announcements to date say they do.

The upgrade to the Tuckabianna plant was put on hold as of July 2022... WGX being very cagey about it, which is smart of course, in case their plans are to do something else with the asset.




Just for context, this is where all the ore was coming from as of Feb 2022. Since then some mines have been throttled back, some increased and some shut down all together. Which in itself is impressive and WGX looks to meet guidance this FY. Basically, the U/G mines operating, are outperforming the numbers below.



I very much agree about 300k being an interim goal for the company, I do wonder why WB has not basically announced as much, as I really struggle to believe the 'market' expect WGX to produce anywhere near 400k in FY2024....

As for acquisitions, WGX is spoilt for choice really, especially bolt on ones, as in the end... once you have a plant running, its much easier to purchase assets that cannot justify their own standalone operation.

@Joelstar absolutely right about the plant upgrades. But again, smart to be quiet whist they uncountably have plans on the go.
Jolly - not sure its quite the no-brainer regarding the plant upgrades. They are old plants... WGX has even looked at just starting from scratch at Tuckabianna, which... is crazy when they have Dalgaranga nearby, but... does not hurt to do the studies anyway.

@wassa - agree about Tuckbabianna in the short term. Perhaps they have planned for a minimum 3 year life for the plant, and the power upgrade pays for itself in that time fame. Logically, they would want a nice shiny plant beside Big Bell and Great Fingall



But no way worth moving Tuckabianna... it would fall apart on the way.
I mean, Big Bell will potentially be producing 1.4mtpa alone by the end of FY2024!

On its own, I think WGX could indeed produce closer to 340-350k by the end of FY2024 if the plans for both Great Fingall and Big Bell deeps go ahead, but.... perhaps I am being optimistic time wise for BBD.

Phew.... that is enough posting tonight, unless HC starts paying me!