Hey Iron,
firstly, I will just touch on the announcement a little further, as I did not get time to give it the attention it deserved earlier.
They are at pains to explain that there is potentially a step change (scale) in the production profile at Bluebird (currently 550kt p.a), will be at least closer to 750kt p.a as a stretch goal, though... perhaps even higher if the green highlighted area is mineralized too (exploration occurring this quarter onwards).
Also, just for context, in FY23, WGX was able to increase the MRE by 300k in TOTAL, with reserves not being fully replaced, I think FY24 will be vastly different, I mean, they just added 475k in just the Bluebird U/G, which should see a strong reserves conversion too.
I don't quite agree about South Junction being 3 years away from production, closer to 12-18 months max. They could push FID within the next 6 months IMHO with a new decline in operation with 3-6 months.
Regarding Paddy Flat being shut, yes, it caught them somewhat unprepared, albeit it was lower tonnage than Bluebird, but had been higher grades.
In regards to how they plan to fill the Bluebird Mill, I have been quite critical of the lack of clarity around how they might maximise the throughput at that plant, which is only running at 1.4mtpa (can go higher), yet... after some pondering and really thinking carefully about what WGX have available to them currently, as explained in the update today, the Bluebird mill has multiple ore sources, with Bluebird providing 550tkpa, followed by Big Bell and stockpiles.
Here is the reserves statement from last year. Basically, they are producing 1mtpa from Big Bell, 330kt from Fender (still ramping up), 550kt from Bluebird and then the rest is stockpiles. Basically, they are filling the Tuckabianna plant (they have a huge amount of stockpiles there that are profitable at record gold prices), then send whatever amount they need from Big Bell and Fender by truck north (and stockpiles too, even though I doubt they are very profitable).
Plus they have the stockpiles at Bluebird Plant itself. Suffice to say, they can fill both mills. Though especially Tuckabianna, with an almost unlimited amount of stockpiled ore.
I can see now why WGX has not needed to acquire any of its smaller neighbors, because they may as well use the stockpiles. Especially when they have multiple U/G mines they can bring online again.
Then you have Great Fingall which will produce around 300ktpa, which can also be sent north.
Basically, for example for Bluebird Currently)
550kt from Bluebird U/G
330kt from Fender
300kt from Big Bell
220kt from stockpiles (approx 2 years of Bluebird stockpiles at a guessimate).
Tuckabianna (currently)
700kt from Big Bell
650kt from stockpiles (approx 6-7 years)
Once Great Fingall ramps up (300kt), then you simply send it all to the Bluebird plant, removing the need for any use of the stockpiles.
I do still think that WGX should be reassessing the open pit potential nearby the Bluebird plant, if nothing else but for redundancy from the U/G mines, but they know best on this.
Could well get an update that throws mud on my face, but that is my read on things currently.
(20min delay)