excellent summation. after all lest we forget that the chairman...

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Harriihound

159 Posts.

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05/03/22

06:43

Post #: 59998344
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Originally posted by jman0076: ↑

Pickle Crowe will eventually turn into a 4-5Moz system, I'm fairly confident of that. This would put it up there in the top ranks of the Worlds' best undeveloped projects. But imo the investment case is still another 2-3 years out, and I'll explain why with 3 points:

a.) Not exactly sure if their processing plant is scalable in terms of commercial levels of production that investors would expect from a top-tier producer. The preso quotes an annualised rate of 110Kt pa based on the current plant set-up, which if we assume a 4.5 g/t average feed grade only equates to around 16,000oz pa. Some operations produce this in a month, so there are orders of magnitude differences here.

From an orebody of this size and quality, I'd be expecting 150-180Koz pa, but are AUT even thinking in these terms?

b.) New headframe, rehab of the existing shaft to 250m below surface and dewatering of the existing workings spells serious capex, we're talking into the high tens and into the hundreds of millions of dollars here. This is a historic shaft mine, so differs from most modern-day Australian ug mines which use a decline and a trucking fleet.

c.) No real commitment to establish an ug mine within the next 2-3 years. The only ug development mentioned in the presentation refers to a potential decline off the base of the starter pit to establish a drill platform for ongoing ug exploration drilling.

The somewhat vague long-term commitment here is suggesting to me that AUT are trying to position themselves as a t/o target from the likes of Evolution (who operate Red Lake in the district and have been buying out their neighbors and now have several processing plants), or another company with the financial clout to get something like Pickle Crowe up and running.

There is nothing inherently wrong with this strategy, and I applaud AUT for their aggressive drilling strategy to grow the Resource quickly, but in terms of an investment to get exposure to a World-class asset that can transition into production quickly, this isn't the message I'm currently getting from AUT.

I'll be sitting on the sidelines for a while yet, I'm definitely not knocking the project which I believe has massive potential, but I'd need to see some slightly different messaging from AUT before buying in.

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excellent summation.

after all lest we forget that the chairman is an ex IB.

hoping the gold price creates some M&A interest soon
oh

AUT Price at posting: 7.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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