Initially I thought your stated risk ratio of 20%-60% too conservative, and was thinking 40% - 70% based on the fact that 12 [Now 11] patients were doing so well, but on reflection I get what you mean. We have to get the initial response first, then worry about the longevity of stability or if we are very lucky regression.
For share price, I think we can easily see a $ 1 + prior to going on the market. With a license deal, back of the envelope calculations $100 million in royalties is not out of the question.
A bit of quick research below. I have predicted 600 million shares on issue to account for a cap raise. I have used AI Chat in this instance but have run it past a CPA and he feels it is in the ball park for a small company distributing royalties, but suggested it depends on how many much they retain for further R&D etc.
The average P/E ratio in Australia can vary depending on the industry, sector, and market conditions. However, based on historical data from the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), here are some general guidelines on the average P/E ratios for Australian listed companies:
- For the overall Australian market, the average P/E ratio is around 15-17 times.
- For the S&P/ASX 200 Index, which is a benchmark index of the Australian stock market, the average P/E ratio is around 16-18 times.
- For the mid-cap and small-cap segments of the market, the average P/E ratios can be higher, typically ranging from 18-25 times.
Let's recalculate the market value using the same average P/E ratio for the overall Australian market (15-17 times), but with 600 million shares outstanding.
1. Calculate the earnings per share (EPS) by dividing the net profit by the number of shares outstanding.EPS = $100 million / 600 million shares = $0.167 per share2. Multiply the EPS by the average P/E ratio to estimate the market value.Market value = EPS x P/E ratio= $0.167 x 16 (midpoint of 15-17 times)= $2.67 per shareNow, multiply the estimated market value per share by the number of shares outstanding to get the estimated market value:Market value = $2.67 per share x 600 million shares= $1.6 billion
So, in this scenario, a company with a net profit of $100 million and 600 million shares outstanding, with an average P/E ratio, might have a market value of around $1.6 billion.Note that the market value is slightly higher than in the previous scenario with 100 million shares outstanding, due to the increased number of shares outstanding. However, the estimated market value remains relatively stable, as the EPS has decreased proportionally with the increase in the number of shares outstanding.
Anyone want to have a shot at what a buy out may attract ? It's time to put events of the last 2 weeks behind us.
Cheers
(20min delay)
