Sorry
@mcbj about not replying to your post at 10:56 am yesterday , I wasn't purposefully not replying to your post yesterday - It's just I didn't want to add further negative views to an already retreating share price.
But as there is a lot of negativity here on the forum , what would be the difference if I were to share my thoughts on what you had asked.
So I wrote this up yesterday in response :-
Well FIRSTLY , I think ' Insto's ' as you say would be fully aware of the likelihood of Authier getting up in the context of how it was ' Pitched ' for NAL . As they would with some of the BETTER options for Authier's success elsewhere and partnered with other potential projects.
And if that is the case , Lynch has already now committed Authier to a BAPE .....which I am unsure if that can be undone. So was that purposeful in ' kicking the can down the road ' until other projects presented themselves which would be a better fit ' Environmentally ' .
So while the jury is still out on that one , it would appear that Authier when compared to other emerging lithium jurisdictions has far too much impact on the environment per extracted lithium tonne than Quebec needs to tolerate at this stage.
So consequently it's DEAD in my view....., and the Insto's would ALWAYS know because they do the MATH on probabilities across ALL the risks. And Authier has ALWAYS been a risk. Having said this , they probably, to a degree though , don't like the fact that Sayona had DECLARED Autheir as part of the puzzle and then jumped on Jourdan for what appears to be a ' way out ' of it.
The Broker single day transactions would certainly indicate an exit ....albeit at the lows. Interesting though that Goldman's actually bought near those lows.
How they ( the BOD ) ultimately end up communicating Authier , and which is your SECOND part of the question is obviously important in mitigating the effect down the road on the SP and after they complete their ' REVIEW ' .
So the ' Review ' buys them some time which also buys them some time to find another suitable project to either tip in Authier via a sale or another potential JV partner in the regions I have already mentioned.
At this stage though and because of everything I've said above , I reckon a lot of the downside of Authier requiring further review has been ' baked ' into the current share price. In fact who Authier ends up partnering with ....or even sold outright might even be a good thing for the SP down the track. And its relatively ' small change ' in the larger scheme of things now.....even though it represents FAILURE to perhaps Lynch's legacy.
So then coming back to ' Reviews I think the ' Review ' of his Brett's performance was definitely on again in light of the uprise from RETAIL in regards the remuneration via the FREE shares , and so was being looked at again following the meetings and goings on in social media circles.
And while I guess you can say what you like about him in that fact that he went on from his original SUCONDMENT and task in getting Authier approved ....to then going on to ' Hatch ' this plan to secure and acquire NAL from receivership and insolvency. But at the same time , one also has to remember that even this was NOT his plan - Because it had been widely floated and was circulating around the markets long before he even came into his position as CEO ie it fell in his lap really , but the concept had been there all along.
Just as there was takeover talk surrounding Nemaska when it was still solvent.
So o.k , he was able to muster the resources to obtain NAL on the cheap ..., and at what cost did this come to the financial viability of this project vis a vis the 50% OTA with Piedmont. ...... Then as it turned out and was shown following the conclusion of NAL when we moved on to Moblan .........And I'm speaking of the time when he went on the record and stated it was something Sayona had looked at back at the time it acquired Authier but couldn't afford it ( So again way before his time at Sayona ) . So it ( Moblan ) was something which had obviously been in the books of potential projects that Sayona had previously looked at and had JUST come on the Market due the Canadian governments early posturings towards Chinese interest. And clearly the records reflect that Guo Ao was making virtually no progress in dealing or answering effectively ANY of the EIS questions put to it from July 2019 and even before. Literally thousands of pages of documents ....which is probably no wonder they wanted out as well.
He then ( in hindsight and my view now ) ends up paying through the freakin nose for it ( Moblan ) and just to see the Chinese on their way. I mean Moblan is now clocking up over $200 million spent when others like PMT and Winsome have flown under the radar in picking up their lithium prospective land packages for virtually NOTHING by comparisons.
So if we were to do our own brief summary and review of these projects in light of all this , we would simply summarize and narrate them as follows :-
Authier - DEAD and needing another partner
Tansim / Lac Simard - DEAD and needing another partner
Moblan - Paid too much and still needing another partner
Troilus - Paid too much and needing partner for enlarged project footprint
Jourdan - Unproven and needing LOTS of exploration dollars spent
NAL - difficult geology and mining including underground and potentially needing LOTS more exploration dollars spent PLUS potentially a new partner for downstream if Piedmont doesn't come along.
Only real saving grace is the fact we now have a solid project in Moblan ( we hope ) , which while needs another partner because that is what Quebec would push for in order to advance it . And while it appears we have paid too much for it , or at least ' Market ' , we need to find someone to come with us on fast tracking it or else pick-ups like the Troilus package and even the Lac Albert become just another mute point acquisition .
So there MUST have been some broader strategy in play that hasn't even revealed itself yet which was hinged to the Lac Albert land package. And the ONLY ones that can really be is Vision Lithium , Winsome Resources .....or BOTH.
But whatever they do , they need to get a move along if they want Quebec would like to make this the next Val d'Or mining district of the NORTH.
And they've got virtually everything here..... EXCEPT concentrator processing capacity. They've got the Gold , they've got the Copper , Zinc , rare earths and Lithium , and they've got sufficient infrastructure. They even have previously mined pits - aka Troilus . All they really need now is the BIG BLUE or GREEN SHED with a concentrator and a mining contractor with some heavy equipment.
Heck maybe we can even tap Troilus on the shoulder in lending a hand there.....
And as you can see in the attached Aerial Map below , they ( Troilus ) seem to have plenty of ' White ' waste rock surrounding their historical pit. Wonder what all that is composed of .......
Surely it has some other minerals which could be ' re-processed '
(20min delay)
