Greentech is now trading at something like A$225m EV.
We are trading at $110m EV.
If we compare on a FCF basis for that to make sense we would need to assume Greentech are making 2x MLX FCF. The point where that occurs is roughly double our C+M bill or 33.6m FCF - so $67m for 100% basis of Renison.
However we have done the numbers on what Renison Area 5 could look like.
800kt x 2% x 74% = 11,840t of contained Sn.
Your doc from earlier had Sn conc selling on MB for circa US$18kt but I will leave that for now.
Let's assume A$24k as it is currently. AISC of $13,000. Given current $16,000 and we are taking a good bump in grade.
Would give us 11k x 5,920t (our 50% share) = A$65m
So Greentech would be trading on 3.5x FCF.
If we also used 3.5x FCF we should be trading at A$168m even accounting for Nifty C+M costs.
Big arbitrage in my opinion. The more bullish you are Renison the more that becomes apparent.
MLX Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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