Absolutely, we wouldn't need to get to $100 WTI to see SEA at...

Absolutely, we wouldn't need to get to $100 WTI to see SEA at $2.

I'm not saying we're going to see $100 WTI, but if that very big if did come to pass, $2 should very comfortably be in the rear view mirror. Hypothetically (and I think it's essentially impossible in any remotely plausible scenario) if WTI was to remain at around $100 long term, SEA would be worth serious multiples of $2. But I'm sure it won't happen.

At this point it's difficult to call. If SA can patch up the damage within a few days as they claim (that seems unlikely to me, it seems more like a crazy claim in a desperate attempt to suppress panic, but hey, I'm really not sure) it probably won't be too extreme. A bit of a jump tomorrow which should hold higher, probably with volatility but consistently above recent levels until either the facility's function is restored or it goes on until later in the week, at which point it'll start to get worrisome and prices will increase further. If it takes a longer time to repair, we could easily see $70+, and if there are retaliation attacks on Iran and/or further attacks on SA and/or conflict spills into other oil-producing counties, then yes, $100 is possible (though not long term). It's difficult to call at this point but if I had to guess, with very low confidence I'd say there won't be any more attacks.

It's going to be a very interesting week.