Is Global Crude Becoming US Natural Gas? Probably
1. Structurally oversupplied – 3.5 MBD offline due to political and commercial disputes.
2. Rallies have needed heroic efforts:
A. Multiple OPEC cuts; B. Above-trend demand for four years; C. Iran sanctions and re-sanctions; D. Supply risk from VZ and Libya
3. Brent crude FV at $65; Sell $75, Buy $55. WTI FV at $57.
4. Five-year demand will surprise to the upside.
5. Three-year supply will surprise to the upside.
6. IMO a positive, but only for 12–18 months.
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