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Is Global Crude Becoming US Natural Gas? Probably1. Structurally...

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kevg91

2,165 Posts.

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23/10/19

13:55

Post #: 41030841
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Originally posted by tt2000: ↑

Hi @kevg91

I don't see this quarterly report being overly positive at all
Dimmit settled a day after quarter end (So debt balance is going to be $20M higher than it actually is)
Don't think last quarter was FCF +ve - it should happen this quarter (Oct - Dec)
Lack of operational announcement suggests nothing exciting - if you look back, the most frequent reporting of operational announcements coincided with positive news / upward share price movement (basically until October last year).
7 trading days to go until the quarterly, 13 trading days left on the ASX.

I do think patience is needed with this one - everything that could possibly go wrong has (late close of Dimmit, redomiciliation announcement just when SEA finally had some upward momentum, no demand on the ASX at the moment as no one wants to buy into something that is about to be suspended)...

I may do one final top up before the redom, as I think when the FCF rolls in we are surely due for a run (But not if oil is falling as you say)

Do you mind sharing the WTI target range and period that you have come across please (no need to name source)

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Is Global Crude Becoming US Natural Gas? Probably
1. Structurally oversupplied – 3.5 MBD offline due to political and commercial disputes.
2. Rallies have needed heroic efforts:
A. Multiple OPEC cuts; B. Above-trend demand for four years; C. Iran sanctions and re-sanctions; D. Supply risk from VZ and Libya
3. Brent crude FV at $65; Sell $75, Buy $55. WTI FV at $57.
4. Five-year demand will surprise to the upside.
5. Three-year supply will surprise to the upside.
6. IMO a positive, but only for 12–18 months.
Last edited by kevg91: 23/10/19

SEA Price at posting: 14.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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