Hope so! Will be worth multiples of the current market cap in the coming months if they get a successful trial imo.
My logic is that they will initially have exclusive access to a market estimated to be worth $200m p.a. and growing quickly (along with first mover advantage thereafter), with a moat that is protected by regulation - I.e. other products cannot be registered unless they show positive phase 2b / 3 clinical data which takes quite a while to get to.
Other ASX disclosed production / licensing agreements for CBD products indicate royalty terms around 10% of sales revenue (ref: EMD) which would go straight to the bottom line so I think the royalty (profit) pool up for grabs wouldn’t be terribly far off $20m p.a. initially. The only other competitors that I know of with ongoing applicable trials are Emyria and Avecho. Apply a conservative 5-6x earnings multiple to even a third of that $20m would return a market cap 2-3x higher than today’s value.
The above is before accounting for any value to do with Aquaphase which I think will be significant for both psychiatric medication (ref. ongoing C-FIT investigation) and the consumer retail CBD / THC beverage market in the US. Not to mention that it can potentially be included in our TGA registration down the track to increase margins via enhanced bioavailability.
The risk of trial failure is certainly there but exciting times nonetheless.
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Anthony Noble, MD & CEO
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