Numbers as they stand stack pretty like for like with CVV which is valued at A$100m. If you back A$75-100m out of our current MC I still think it makes Tomingley look cheap even considering recent miss steps (if that is how you want to phrase it).
To @Antipater_100 point this will end up a much longer life project than 17 years, once initial capex hurdle is gone then the requirement for additional material to make a profit will be a lot lower and this will go for decades.
On this basis an NPV kind of becomes a little redundant too. Numbers that are important are capex, payback period and annual EBITDA/FCF
AISC of A$600 on 150koz is cheap. That is basically $450m EBITDA/yr at spot prices.
Maybe they can consider non owner operated fleet etc and bring capex down and push opex up a little at the start to make the hurdle a little easier.
Grade for the 20Mtpa scenario is pretty low 0.26g/t Au and 0.15% Cu. First 5 years a bit higher at like 0.32g/t and 0.18% Cu
If we can find a 50Mt near surface pocket somewhere of even say 0.45g/t and 0.25% Cu (not asking for miracles) then that would make a huge difference in payback period and likelihood of project getting up.
At the end of the day this was always a bull market asset and this SS to me confirms that it is a pretty reasonable one.
Only takes a few things to go right and it gets a lot better
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