Ann: Boda-Kaiser Scoping Study, page-72

No wasn't aware of that indicator but sounds right. There is clearly a "masked recession" (my term) occurring. In Australasia it's been masked by immigration. I have always regarded the fact of a per capita recession as far more significant (but not newsworthy) than a declared recession. We have had the former for ages.

US numbers are knocked around by the southern border inflows.

In my mind I have this picture. It's of two brothers living side-by-side running a market garden. One grows the veges and the other does the selling, servicing of equipment, planning and other corporate functions.

Then they have a massive falling-out. So both decide to grow and sell in competition. That requires a re-ordering of activity. One must learn to actually grow sh#t and the other must learn to run a complete business model.

Call one brother China and the other brother the US. Neither is going to be viable and resilient without much disruption. And one thing is for sure. The two enterprises will never be as productive as the one that preceded them. I see us living through that process and I see the inevitability of a higher-inflation, less prosperous world.

Layer that with a green transition which has much the same impact on the world (doing less for more) and it's not hard to see why we are in a bit of turmoil. Also not hard to see why we are all scrambling to read the chicken entrails properly.

One thing is for sure, gold in whatever form seems about as sensible a backstop as anything else.