Good post Bin, not sure if others have had a chance to watch the investor briefing (I sort of watched it around 1am... so my thoughts are likely jumbled).
Alkane Resources Investor Briefing Webinar 11 July 2024Nic did a decent job along with IC. Though if I can be brief, the main points I wanted to raise is....
Nic not seeming to explain the plan for studying the U/G mining possibilities and a clear timeline for this (i.e sub level caving - at perhaps 2,5 and 10mtpa, this is already done at other large gold/copper mines). He admitted early on that they realised the 5mtpa did not stack up with conventional U/G mining... just not economic. So.... why did they not switch tact and aim to include the U/G resources.
I mean... the study only looks at just over 1/3 of the MRE, which as
@Antipater_100 has discussed, could easily double in terms of tonnes in the mine plan. So suddenly, you could be looking at a 30+ year LOM plan (before even drilling out Boda/Kai properly).
The recent REX deal really caught my eye, as discussed in the video, Nic mentions a coal miner is now looking at Copper/Gold.
Then that initial large sunken capex, becomes much less of an issue to entities that look at 2-3 decade investments.
The discussion on how the mining itself could be optimized was constructive and I suppose shows how early this study is. If I can be open minded, ALK is now going to speak to any and all and hopefully, be able to come back to the market with the learnings from these discussions on what they plan to do next, especially based on just what they have right now, as further exploration is going to be small and methodical (assuming no major success)
Then you have the production graph and mix of metals. I can only imagine how this could be changed with U/G ore mixed in (slightly higher grades).
I did like how upfront and honest ALK is about the overall production timeline. So many companies try and blur... when an actual asset might get into production, or simply never actually state when it might at all! 6-7 years is very reasonable, considering it's location.
Then you have question time. I guess I can understand that Nic did not want to discuss CAI, but... I was disappointed in how he handled the question. Not accepting it was a poor outcome and instead just talking about GMD (which was an excellent outcome for ALK). I am fine with ALK still looking for opportunities to become a multi mine company, but... the MD and board are paid a lot of money to evaluate opportunities and... to decide when an investment no longer makes sense. They had a lot of time to sell out of CAI like myself and many others did, who could see how risky the company became.
I estimate ALK lost approx. (the opportunity cost of this investment cannot be understated, as in... that could have gone 100% into exploration around Boda/Kai, or Tommi, or... a different company)
2018 - $3.7m
2019 - $2.2m + $350k + $1.2m + $3m + $1.3m
2022 - $3m
2023 - $2.5m
TOTAL - $17.25m
Finally, a reminder that ALK was not just a passive investor.... so if anyone was able make clear decisions on the viability of CAis operations, it was ALK.
Hopefully others can further discuss the video, as there is a lot more to be teased out.
ALK has done the study on Boda, the market does not care (not that it cared last week), so ALK has some serious decisions to make about where to allocate capital. For me, that means the market only cares about Tommi and it's production. i.e. In the near term, exploration should be focused on giving Tommi maximum production, to assist in ALK not stretching itself too much with the debt. So maybe, more drilling at Colona to add a few extra ounces in FY25 etc.
Good luck to all holders.
(20min delay)