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Ann: Bonus Option Issue Prospectus, page-24

  1. 27,612 Posts.
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    You dont pay 0.8c, when you could pay 0.9c and own a share, without a 2.5c conversion overhang.
    Any other logic is mathematical lunacy.

    Because if the shares were at 3c tomorrow, and in the money , you would either have to pay 2.5c conversion + 0.8c = 3.3c.

    And what has your profit been ? you invested 3.3c to own 3c.
    Alternatively you might be able to sell the option on market, for maybe at the fringe of being in the money at say 1c ? you just got your money back. Or if the market is really bullish, maybe then pay the 1-2 and give you 1.5c, but only if it thought the shares could keep going to 5c.

    But if you had bought the share at 0.9c, that became worth 3c, you would have made 300% gain on your investment.

    Why take all that risk at that price, when you could ride the shares. When the options could expire.

    You really need to get a calculator out, and work out the likely price of either head or option, and risk. and the movement of the price you are prepared to pay for that risk, but risk needs to come with reward.
    Run those numbers again, with an option purchase at 0.4c, and if it traded at 1.2c, (heads 3c) then you have only just speculatively made the same gains as the heads. But still not in the money. Still flakey.

    Options are sentiment. How much extra volume of something cheap, that may not survive long enough to be in the money etc, vs leverage hunters who take that risk. The out of money LVR can swing wildly bearish to bullish.
    What are the odds of getting them into the money at intrinsic value at say 4-5c heads.

 
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