In theory you are right there will be no change, however, more...

In theory you are right there will be no change, however, more to it than deducting the cash from current price.

Shares are generally valued on a PE.

How will earnings change post payout. Answer will lose interest income on the $3B which in todays climate is not much so I would have thought the earnings will not change materially.

Earnings/losses from the businesses sold which provided the cash will not be ongoing but I would have thought that these amounts have already been factored in by the big players with their future earnings calculations pre this announcement.

My view, is that post buy back, the future share price plus buyback will exceed the current $6.20 price when it all settles down (say 1-3 months)

Maybe there will be sellers who will decide to sell their shares to Stokes in the immediate term post buy back who base their decision on today price less buyback to help keep the price down in the very short term.