From my basic and uneducated perspective of things I can see more buyer interest from already existing holders once the capital return and dividend is payed back on the 14th which conveniently enough coincides with the release of the half yearly report.
From historic research I have found that the market generally likes a stock more once the under performing segments of the business are divested.
It also strengthens the balance sheet. With this capital refund it may look like nothing has changed but in reality the heavy baggage is gone and we are left with what made the company the great company that it is.
I cannot speak highly enough of managements actions over the last 2 years. They have carried out textbook business development by strengthening the balance sheet and consolidated their focus on the most productive part of the business. Debt is low and there is an extra $1 Billion in the bank after divestment!
I would by no means be surprised if the SP reaches $4 by the second week of March. The buy side of the depth has been buyer heavy ever since the announcement of the capital return. I expect that the SVH strategy is to lower SP with cap return and then use that capital return to purchase more shares at the lower price therefore increasing their holding percentage and/or use all or part of the $1 Billion in BLD left over from divestment's to purchase its own shares.
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