Ann: Borba Operations Update and Prospective Resource, page-52

Well, that was very disappointing and anti-climactic.

After all the speculation and guessing of the number of TCFs that Borba might hold, it comes in at only 141 BCF. Even the StockAnalysis report of 2018 said they conservatively estimated a 250 BCF target.

And in remarkably quick goal-shifting, apparently the multi TCFs were always all about the surrounding areas?

The 70% success rate sounds good but this is geological chance of success versus commercial chance of success, which was the problem with Dempsey. The chance of encountering hydrocarbons vs chance of actually making money from them ...

On the positive side, the video said that ERCE had identified 11 target zones, whereas internally they see 14 or 15 zones. And perhaps they have been quite conservative - the difference between their best and high estimates is quite large for a number of the targets. The increase in gas prices will also be helpful on success (although the chart they show looks strangely spikey).

As for potential value, according to the prices given in the report, each BCF could be worth $5 million, and SGC's share could be 75 BCF, which multiplies to $375 million. Reduce this by about half (?) say for costs, which could be relatively low given the close proximity to gas lines etc, leaves $200 million say. However this is misleading as it is for success at all 11 targets, which will never happen. In the report on the second last page, they give a more realistic estimate for SGC of 14 BCF which pans out at around $35 million using the same guesstimate process as above. Given that the market cap of SGC is currently around $52 million, the blue sky from Borba alone doesn't look so compelling anymore.

It still could work out well however if they have sucess at Borba, and then move into these supposed TCF targets.
I held SGCOA, but the lower apparent potential of Borba, combined with the fact that it will take time to explore the other targets on Borba success means the options (which expire in Dec) are now too risky for mine. Time will tell if I made the right decision to sell & hope remaining SGCers and XSTers have success on the upcoming drill.