From my US Sales curve post "Kaken advised Botanix that they sold around 350,000 units in the previous 12 months, and that 262,500 of those sales were new sales" In Japan the average number of refills is 1, so 1 month supply would be the average number of months for a Japanese patient.
When Sofdra has 275,000 NEW patients & using the current refill rate ( 100% ) 275,000 x 12 x 700 = 2.31 Billion USD sales = 3.62 Billion AUD sales
This is using Kaken's Japanese patient year 3 numbers, with Sofdra's current refill rate. USA market is 3 times bigger, so suggest we could be at 3 times that number, and 1/3rd the refill rate for the same sales, which easily supports the suggested T/O price.
For this to happen in July, we need to continue the sales ramp, and show that the sales ramp is continuing and not flattening, and get more data for the refill rate as it develops.
Half yearly numbers in the middle of summer, with more advertising is going to blow everyone's socks off I think.
BOT Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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