Hi Rusty, firstly the CR could have been held on good news when the SP cleared 18.5c, even @ 15c would have been a reward to the insto because BOT had completed trials and was on a roll and technically progressed, reducing future risk.
Secondly the large decline that has taken place is after the 11c CR lets call it 27% since CR.
So BOT release positive trial info, reduce risk and complete a CR for 11c down from a travel of 16c at the time... circa 35% since that CR the SP has not recovered... sure we know BOT are progressing with Trials but that wont be reflected now in the SP until results are in .... on great news with many retail investors SP climb is generally assured as retail investors desire a greater return than a mandated Insto.. so when you get the push on positive news your insto goes through a churn back to market with circa 15% to 20% margin.
So the CR hits twice once in the intial discount but also as the SP climbs instead of it running to a 5 bagger it is held for the insto churn , in this case 139,000,000 shares.
I agree that early stage Biotech must have CR to generate funds, but then you need your management to explore and secure a commercial opportunity for the technology... to take the burden of Shareholders,, also when they need to exercise a CR they need to hit it at it's highest,, not wait 3 weeks for it to come down to a number that is palatable to the Insto.. BOT have a go to button,,and looks like they hit it once to many times..
Sure the SP will recover on good positive news but it wont fly as from experience ,,, BOT have a lot of Churn to work through,, its like dragging an anchor when it runs..
Management have shown their timing is poor and they aren't able to raise funds elsewhere, now the market will want to see the companys' ability to seek and fulfill a commercial deal,,,before another CR is needed...
in closing I am buying up this week to only load them @10.5% as a 20% gain prior to the insto even getting the chance to sell,,,, one thing i've learnt Insto's very rarely lose ,, if you cant join them,,,beat them at their own game,, NZT
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