Ann: Botanix Webinar - Presentation Copy, page-180

Sauce?......don't want to drop DA in.....but the post as per below:

I believe the last line of the below - was worked out converting the Jap sales from Yen to units etc (posted 3/6/24 by Dachopper4)



dachopper4,192 Posts. 546403/06/2416:31Post #: 74141567ShareNow that I've got my graph on, I think this topic deserves it's own thread.After approval, what might we expect in terms of USA sales, and USA sales growth. To tackle any sales forcast it's important to start off with a few basic facts, and then select a rationale to make the forecast. This is not financial advice, and I have no financial advice training.... just presenting a few facts with a few sources.1. The Japanese prescription drug industry on average only sells 1 refil per patient. Source - BOT May 2024 webinar.Meaning the average patient buys 1 packet / tube / bottle of a prescribed drug and does not go back for another.2. USA dermatology related prescription drugs only sell on average 2 refills per patient. Source - BOT May 2024 webinar.Meaning for a " base sales comparison" between Japan and USA sales, the USA sales on average are expected to sell twice as many, due to on average the USA market selling twice as many refills to 1 patient. ( Or two packets / tubes / bottles sold per patient for derma products in the USA as an average)3. Kaken advised Botanix that they sold around 350,000 units in the previous 12 months, and that 262,500 of those sales were new sales ( implying that 87,500 units were repeat customers). I will assume here, the 12 months talked about were 2023 sales ( since Source - BOT May 24 webinar).That means even at year 4, there are a LOT of patients willing to try the new product. Consider BOT has released that in the USA there were 3.7 Million patients recorded as seeking treatment within a 12 month period recently, and that the Japanese percentages were similar, but population is approximately 1/3rd. This would equate to an inferred market seeking treatment in Japan of around 1.2 million people. 262,500 of which last year tried Ecclock - the Japanese equivalent product to BOT's Sofdra. While the treatment numbers are accurate ( 262,500 ) the JDM number seeking treatment are inferred so may not be accurate, but in any case this could represent 22% NEW market penetration of those seeking treatment, along with an unknown number of patients getting refills ( for a total of 87,500 refills). It is not released how those refills are occurring - weather it's 43,000 people getting 2 refills, or 8,750 people getting 10 refills, so impossible to take anything more away from that.4. Kaken Ecclock sales figues since launch can be calculated based on the reported total Ecclock sales, knowing that the price is fixed by the Japanese government per unit ( at ¥4,874 per bottle - which is 1 unit ). BOT also released that Kaken advised them directly of 350,000 unit sales roughly in the 2023 12 month period, so that figure is a known. Source - BOT May 2024 webinar, Kaken 2020,2021,2022 financial reports.2020 September Ecclock was approved, and 2020 November Japanese Sales commenced. in 2021 it was reported for the year that Ecclock sales had risen to 950 million Yen, and that the figure was a 559 % year on year increase from 2020. This allowed 2020 sales to be calculated at 170 million Yen for Ecclock, and the units sold for 2020 and 2021 to be calcuylated using the 4874 Yen unit price. In 2023 Kaken announced it had forecast sales of 2.1 Billion Yen of units of Ecclock, and that was a 67% YoY growth. This allowed the 2022 sales figure to be reverse calculated at 1.257 Billion Yen. Finally in the BOT may webinar, the actual unit sales for the previous 12 months were mentioned to be 350,000, which calculates to be slightly below the Kaken revised 2023 sales forecast. This could be because the forecast was not met, or also it could be because the " sales in the last 12 month period " is not actually lined up with the Jan to Dec reporting period, and could be March ot March for example.2020 - 34,867 units ( Sales revenue based )2021 - 194,911 units ( Sales revenue based )2022 - 257,899 units ( Sales revenue based )2023 - 350,000 units ( reported directly )