By 2015/6 Cok will be exporting 10m tonnes. Have I got this...

By 2015/6 Cok will be exporting 10m tonnes. Have I got this correct ?

Yes and no. That is the intention but realistically I don't think it will happen, the Surat timelines keep slipping.

That timetable requires the North Surat JV to be mining by 2016. That in itself requires Xstrata's Wandoan and the associated infrastructure to go ahead, and COK to find funding of at least $500M (assuming total capex of $1B+).

Realistically I think they will be lucky to have Baralaba in full production by 2015 which will be 3.5Mtpa gross and 2.2Mtpa net to COK assuming they standardise the JV at 62.5% ownership.

I actually won't be surprised if the North Surat project gets shelved for a few years, it's going to be pretty marginal in the current environment of huge capex/opex and low coal prices.

But COK is looking good just for Baralaba, so I'm not too worried about that.