Current MC at 1.2c is 11.7M
Certified oil reserves @ 55 USD bbl = 6.3M USD NPV
@85 USD bbl (Current) = 9.8M USD NPV
9.8M USD = 12.6M AUD NPV in oil reserves. At this current MC of 11.7M the company is cash backed on oil production which will commence early next year to take full advantage of high oil price expected to go even higher.
Now factor in any oil discovery and the MC look silly. The ann was definately toned down for release to the market. Nothing is proven without logs but assuming a success case and we have oil at least in zone 2 it is estimated that:
With 1U (P90), 2U (P50), 3U (P10) estimates represent the 90% probability, 50% probability and 10% probability respectively that the quantity recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.
Sand 5 (T3) @7900 Feet estimated 750k bbl recoverable
Sand 6 @ 8000f Feet 500k bbl recoverable
Sand 7 @ 8400 Feet 500k bbl recoverable
Are all realistic chances of success and if 330k bbl is worth 12.6M AUD then anything recoverable from any of these zones is worth a whole lot more.
Big days to come could tomorrow even be that day time will tell but the sell off today way way overdone and today's buyers were fully aware of it.
