"all the hype since 2023"
Hype is defined as "extravagant or intensive publicity or promotion".
I don't see any extravagant or intensive publicity or promotion for MNB.
Despite delays, this project still looks very likely to proceed.
Long lead plant items were paid for and delivered before the DFS was completed.
The DFS was held up by covid restricting access for the environmental studies and later due to the need to change the product to exclude the MAP ingredient due to supply constraints in Africa resulting from the Russia/Ukraine war. In the end the DFS was delivered late but with some very positive changes, especially the new product that needed no MAP as an ingredient resulting in reduced input costs, simpler processing and reduced operating costs. Much lower capital costs was another positive which not only improves the NPV but it also allows stage 2 expansion to be brought forward by 6 or 7 years.
The IDC credit approval was also received late but it was received.
Being late does not mean the project won't be delivered.
Of the Stage 1 capex of US$40mill, US$16mill has already been spent.
That leaves $24mill with $14mill of that covered by the IDC loan, leaving just $10mill.
US$10mill left to fund for a project with total stage 1 capex of $40mill and a DFS after tax NPV greater than US$200mill (A$300mill). That is a great set of numbers that makes funding completion achievable. A further US$10mill working capital requirement is needed to satisfy the IDC preconditions but again, with the numbers above Angolan banks should find no major issues with their due diligence. The project passed the IDC DD, it should also pass the Angolan bank's DD and the Angolan banks also have their need to fill quotas for loans to the agricultural sector.
Delays and the more than previously anticipated dilution have been a big negative and that's shown in the sp. However, I think that the sp decline has overstated the negatives, especially considering that the negative effect of extra dilution has been partially offset by a large increase in product demand from the major offtake partner Carrinho, over the first 5 years in particular, relative to DFS forecasts. That is a big positive, as is the big reduction in upfront and stage 2 capex. Those sales projections below do not include exports which are expected to drive the need to bring stage 2 forward by 6 or 7 years to this year or next.
