Michael likes to compare MTM to IPX which presently has a Market...

Michael likes to compare MTM to IPX which presently has a Market Cap of about $1.4b, they have helped us with the US grant system and the MTM team have visited their facilities and we compare ourselves to them in Presentations & Webinars. I’ve gone back and looked at the Market Caps of IPX for the various stages they were at (allowing for CRs along the way).

For those unfamiliar with IPX, it is an Australian company developing a technology developed in a University for the production of Titanium from scrap in the US. They have gone a step further & will be manufacturing Ti products using 3D printers (which others do) and a new forging technology. Ti is priced at about $130k/t more expensive than Gallium but cheaper than Germanium. Their pilot pant was capable of 2t pa and they have now scaled up to 125t pa with plans to go further. Like us, they just bolt on more modular units to do that. They are a one metal company whereas we have all the metals on the periodic table at our disposal, even at their present advanced stage they had no revenue last Q, though have previously had small revenues.

In 2022 (1H & 2H) they had a MC of around $115m, they had only just produced spherical Ti from ore in their pilot plant (which is more Lab scale at 2t pa). They also secured some premises to base their commercial operations (leased).

By June 2023 they had doubled their MC to ~ $220m. They were scaling up their pilot plant 10X expecting to be operational end of 2023, Engineering & design nearly complete. The risk was in the scale up. Along the way they secured a few potential sales contracts.
I would guess this is about the stage we are now at.

By the end of 2023 they had a MC of ~ $295m. they announced they were expecting $100m EBITDA 2026 (after scale up), expecting 125tpa in 2024, they had secured $12m DoD grant and $10m loan, Sales were $52k in the December Q.

This is where I’d expect MTM to be once our design is completed and we are constructing the demo plant.

By June 2024 they had a MC of $510m. Commissioning was expected 2Q24, successful furnace tests by manufacturer 40kg to 400kg (10x) with quicker turnaround times. Furnace was imported & installed, no revenue in the March Q.

This is where I’d expect MTM to be at in Q3 this year as we commission the Demo Plant.

By the end of 2024 they had a MC of $1.6b. In Aug24 they had a successful commissioning, scaling from 2tpa to 125tpa, they still had zero revenue in the Dec Q.

Clearly the market thought they were derisked with the successful commissioning of the Plant, further expansion was just producing more same sized furnaces in a modular fashion.

If we are successful in what the company calls our ambitious timetable of first revenues from Gallium etc by end of this year I think we’d deserve a MC of a Billion too, maybe not as high as IPX much would depend on the perceived path forward with expansion & what partnerships we cement.