DYOR. Not intended as advice. Analysis is high speculative.Traditional chemotherapy regimens are used in up to 80% of Breast Cancers.
Immunomedics Trodelvy is predominately focused on Triple Negative Breast Cancer, which is 15% to 20% of Breast Cancers.
https://www.grepmed.com/images/3513...agnosis-molecular-incidence-subtypes-invasive
Trodelvy was identified to have peak sales potential of USD $4.7B at time of buyout.
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-report/immunomedics-top-10-takeover-targets-biopharma
Conservatively 80% / 20% = 4x sales potential for Zantrene in Breast Cancer versus Trodelvy. That means peak sales potential just in Breast Cancer at USD $18.8B.
Due to the historic trials data for Breast Cancer (Phase I/II/III), the safety and efficacy (in AML) shown by the Israel Trial last year and this modern preclinical data I am lifting probability of success for Breast Cancer from 40% to 50%.
I calculated risked post-tax NPV to a Big Pharma for Breast Cancer at USD $9.61B.
I haven't added in the other cancers where Anthracyclines are the backbone of chemotherapy ... 10 to 20x ... Breast Cancer? We need a much bigger boat. RAC has gone from a small dingy / runabout with just AML at IPO to a supertanker.
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