I was hoping for a better result, but I realise now that I tended to think of the full-year prognosis, and it is understandable that H1 would be lower than H2 because of the time it would take to switch the mining services business from the Karara contract to the RIO contract, which involved recruiting people and procuring additional equipment. The SP will not hit the 50c that I had hoped might happen on a good-news result.
The so-called Administrative Expense remains very high, and this mystifies me.
I have in the recent past suggested NPAT for FY2015 should be about $300m x 3.5 = $10.5m, and I am now inclined to suggest $300m x 3.25 = $9.75m, which is an anticipated FY2015 EPS of $9.75m ÷ 126.5m = 7.7c. The full-year DPS could be pulled back to 2.75c, but this is entirely a matter of managerial discretion, so they could leave it at 3c, which would still be a sufficiently low payout ratio to allow BYL to reduce the debt incurred to acquire the $30m equipment procured for the RIO contract, although 3c would be more than the the top of BYL's stated payout ratio range of 25% to 35%.
BYL Price at posting:
41.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held