I agree with everything, except for cash on hand of ~$35-40m by end Sep'22. That plus the $45m ANZ faciity will help fund their ST Capex but they'll need to bring down their costs significantly, and quickly.
I'm expecting a disappointing Q report with higher Tritton and Cracow AISC (hidden below the headlined lower Group AISC) and a higher Capex (AT) and exploration spend (GP, Constellation, and RO assets), resulting in a much lower cash on hand or net cash position after some debt drawdown. I'm sure most of it is priced in, and Andre will do his best to calm investors and get them to focus on the LT plan of displacing lower grade copper ore with higher ones (Budgy, Avoca, Constellation), the Stockman project, and push the copper and base metals narratives of tight global supplies, global production constraints, falling world head grade production, and offcourse EV. Unfortunately higher prices and an increasing cost base won't get AIS out of this situation and no closer to realising its potential. I'll be looking at the Q report as the new baseline, and for an effective plan to contain costs across all assets while increasing production and by result reducing AISC.
I'm sure many of these qs will be asked during the Q&A session, and (I hope) management will explain why they didnt at least partly hedge when the deal with SOL was structured.
Holding.......plenty.
AIS Price at posting:
39.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)