Hi @benjorelloI’m not sure where you read the reserves have a 5...

Hi @benjorello

I’m not sure where you read the reserves have a 5 year life?

These wells should/ can produce for 20+ years. The flow rates will be down 90-95 % in the latter stage of their lives. However, the extra energy provided to the reservoir by the frack means they typically produce up to 40 % of their EUR in the first 2 years .

You do however ask a very good question which is hard to answer at this stage as we don’t have enough information regarding how the next DSU’s will be developed in terms of accurate number of wells drilled in each formation, what the BRK WI will be in each DSU ( eg , JV , drill partner or go alone).

From the announcement, we know that 17% of the reserves will produce ~ 715000 BOE net to BRK in the first 12 month period of production, after 3 months of flowback …However, I don’t think we can assume therefor that the remaining 83 % of the reserves over the remaining 3 DSU’s ( 27 .6 % reserves in each) , that they will each produce ~ 27/17x 715,000= 1.163 million MMBOE net to BRK for the first 12 months of post flowback production.

Even if the above case was ball park correct, we don’t have enough info on what each DSU is projected to produce over the following 4-5 years. If we had that info it would be a simple exercise.

So any guesswork prior to more information would have a too great margin of error. This is because using the 4 earlier wells as a guide would be problematic as they are 3 Sycamore wells and one Woodford. Getting an average production per lateral foot might be fairly accurate for the Sycamore component of then remaining SWISH development, ( only 2-3 of the remaining wells are Sycamore), but using Flames as an analogue for the remaining ~ 15 Woodford wells would have the too large
margin of error mentioned earlier.

It would be great if BRK were able to provide some more information and detail on forward plan for the rest of SWISH, especially if the plan will be development without JV or drilling partnerships.

Having said that, it is obvious that BRK production will be a few multiples of the current ~ 1500 BOEPD by the time SWISH is developed. After possiblly a small fall in production in 2024, we should see significant,incremental step change increases over the next few years. ( not including anything from possible new acreage, acquisitions)

Cheers

Dan