Not talking about me, my holding SFX or my posts being...

Not talking about me, my holding SFX or my posts being garbage... lol, if you say so, don't want getting moderated again for saying otherwise. In defence of posting contrarian views, I was suckered in by Irishmist seemingly genuine request "PS please feel free to agree/disagree with me. I am interested in others' perceptions of the interview."... obviously not genuine given they liked both neutralopinion's cringeworthy off-topic personal attacks, about for this thread really.

Appreciate @Galena72 efforts to present the bull case on rutile pricing, don't have bother understanding the industry but it's obviously important (and interesting imo). Recent events with SR and RBM are interesting with 'potential' for LT supply/pricing implications but a 2003 IO analogy doesn;t stand up to much scrutiny. Clearly TIO2 has ridden the same enormous China demand growth last 20 years that IO has, the best growth in that respect looks behind us. Key to TiO2 feed prices is the balance between supply and demand as for all commodities LT after any short-term disruptions or spot price spikes are also over. Below are a list of major supply developments or likely developments in terms of contained TiO2 units annual production, and 2018 global TiO2 feed production, which may rise to approx 8.5Mt of TiO2 units by 2025 with 2.5% CAGR.



Mmmm, few things jump out. Unlikley an IO style TiO2 shortage pending, in fact probably only room for half those projects to go ahead (first in best served s the rule of thumb). Secondly, SVM's likely starter mine production of 100ktpa rutile is only 1.8% of global TiO2 production, irrelevant to annual TiO2 consumption which is dominated by pigment production. Hyperbole like Sprott's "We can only describe this as a disruptive asset" is only that. SVM may well be an important player in the 600ktpa global rutile market, which will be well supplied if all the planned mines are developed. Rutile is critical to Ti-metal production and some welding applications (as is leucoxene), but ultimately rutile is substitutable and a price taker dependant on the price of dominant TiO2 upgrade products.

By 2025 Slag-rutile will represent approx 2/3 of chloride pigment plant feed, as new chloride slag plants come on-line (eg Jazan plant, Saudi, 500ktpa, Yansteel 250ktpa China alone is more than the global natural rutile market). Chloride-slag has cycled around 45% of Chloride pigment plant feed for years, but that is set to rise as plants re-tune for lower natural rutile feed. Natural rutile availability is unlikley to grow sufficiently to match pigment growth, or the risk of supply disruptions are too high, and is economically unattractive once the price rises too far above upgraded TiO2 feed. Keep telling yourselves natural rutile is the low-carbon solution to pigment production if that makes you comfortable even if it's impossible. The world isn't going to care about CO2 emissions in small amount of pigment in the coat of paint on your new car or McMansion...

The only possible path forward is increasing use of unlimited, cheaper chloride-slag feed despite. Pigment feed that is already priced for extra processing and waste management, and which will increase marginally with any future carbon tax (depending on region). Above table shows material rutile production additions, but excludes rutile lost with old mines closing down (eg Kwale and Gangama, Lanti). Who knows what mines will or won;t go ahead, but you can be certain rutile consumers love excess and diversified supply. Of course they will beat a path to SVM's door with off-take contracts and assistance to get up and another supply competitor up and running. Keep an eye out for news on other TiO2 developers is my advice for long term investors (if there are any actually here).

Still a lot of shade being thrown at Julian for his interviews, which I think is unfair but probably depends on your angle. I like an honest presentation, like how Julian says "rutile is currently priced at around $1200/t on contract", where holders only want quoted some $1700/t spot price spike for a teaspoon sold somewhere to someone. Don't think SVMs share price is impacted by Julian's presentation style or sales hype, probably not by company brokers like Sprott, and certainly not by a few posters on HC. Big funds need to come in take out inevitable sellers leaving winners after going early and risky, then fund mine development, and big funds will be looking into project/market fundamentals not rambling puff-piece marketing interviews... all IMHO.